Global energy policy is a game of fine-tuned clockwork, with geographic springs that, when they snap, shake the entire system. The Strait of Hormuz —a narrow vein just 39 kilometers wide between Iran and Oman— is one of those springs. Between 20% and 30% of the world’s oil passes through it. But if Tehran were to close it tomorrow in retaliation for Israeli and U.S. airstrikes, chaos wouldn’t first erupt in Washington or Brussels. The main shock—economic, industrial, and geopolitical—would hit Beijing.
Because, paradoxically, the war waged by Israel and the United States against Iran not only pits the Middle East against the West, it also drags China into a conflict it never wanted to fight, in a theater where oil flows with blood… and where China’s energy future depends on decisions made by others.
Between Hunters and Hunted on the Persian Gulf Chessboard
Since April 2024, the surgical strikes launched by the United States against Iranian nuclear facilities have escalated beyond return. The offensive, framed as a “preemptive act” against an alleged imminent nuclear threat from Iran, has been accompanied by a sustained Israeli air campaign that reached as far as Isfahan, clearly showing that Tehran no longer controls its airspace. The message is not only military, but psychological: Iran is under siege.
And yet, China is caught in that trench as well. Not by ideological conviction, but by geoeconomic pragmatism. Unlike the West, the Asian giant cannot afford to seek conflict beyond its borders. Its Achilles heel is energy: it imports 70% of the oil it consumes, and half of that goes through the Strait of Hormuz.
“The closure of Hormuz would be Asia’s equivalent of the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse,” said an analyst at Peking University —a statement that received far less international attention than it warranted. While Europe has diversified its energy matrix via Russian gas and renewables, and the U.S. enjoys the privilege of self-sufficiency through fracking, China relies on a red line now controlled by a sanctioned, besieged country on the brink.
The Geopolitics of Oil: Who Fears the Hormuz Blockade?
Iran has threatened to close Hormuz before. It did so in 2012, 2019, and now again in 2025. But there is a critical difference: today, it is more cornered than ever, and external aggression is reaching new levels of impunity.
In 2025, there is no Barack Obama signing nuclear deals. There is Joe Biden, pressured by the Israeli lobby and Republicans, who has blown up all diplomatic options. And there is a Russia that, while rhetorically supporting Iran, prefers Tehran under pressure to keep its own oil prices high and China tightly dependent.
Let’s not forget: China and Russia are not “friends”; they are partners of convenience. Moscow needs to sell oil, and Beijing needs to buy it. But the massive Siberia-to-China pipeline—“Power of Siberia II”—is still under construction. The existing pipeline only supplies a fraction of what China needs. In short: for now, China still relies on tankers crossing Hormuz.
An Economy on Edge: The World’s Factory Running on Empty
China’s vulnerability is not just energy-related but industrial. Its ports, factories, and cities run on diesel, gasoline, and gas. If Hormuz is shut down, shipping costs will skyrocket, marine insurance will soar, and cargo ships to Shanghai or Shenzhen will take weeks longer to arrive—if they arrive at all.
This plays into the broader “cold war” with the United States. Washington has restructured its economy to depend less on Chinese imports, but Beijing still relies on the West to export what it produces. If energy costs surge due to a disruption in Hormuz, Chinese products will become uncompetitive. Thus, the closure of the Strait would be a silent catastrophe for Xi Jinping’s economy.
Moreover, who’s to say the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain won’t use the closure as a pretext for direct military intervention? Or that Saudi Arabia won’t hike oil prices amid a shortage? Every move in this chess game is a check against global energy stability, and the king most likely to fall is China.
A Dragon Chained to the Strait
While missiles streak across Iranian skies and drones buzz above the Gulf, Beijing’s only directive is: wait. Unlike the U.S., which plays by imperial rules, or Iran, which plays by desperation, China is trapped in a paradox: its rise depends on a stable world, but that world is crumbling from decisions beyond its control.
The irony is absolute: the country that invested the most in renewables, electric trains, and green technologies still depends on oil flowing through an open wound in the Middle East.
And if that wound starts bleeding, the first to bleed out… will be the Asian dragon.
The Narrowest Strait in the World… and the Most Lethal for the Asian Dragon
In the modern world, no battlefield is more profitable than a maritime chokepoint. The Strait of Hormuz —just 39 kilometers of liquid tension between Iran and Oman— doesn’t just carry oil: it carries power, threats, inflation, proxy wars, and future logistical collapses.
And while it may seem like a showdown between Iran and the U.S., or Israel and the Muslim world, the true hostage wears a business suit, breathes recycled air in Beijing offices, and can do nothing to avoid the blow. If Iran closes Hormuz tomorrow —as it increasingly warns with less rhetoric and more desperation— the country most affected won’t be the United States or Europe. It will be China.
Why? Simple: in the global energy war, the dragon remains tied by the tail to the ships crossing the Persian Gulf. And every missile that hits Natanz or Isfahan brings it one step closer to economic blackout.
Hormuz: An Oil Valve Under Crossfire
More than 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily. That’s one in every five barrels consumed on the planet. And China, which imports over 70% of the oil it uses, relies on that strait for nearly half of its supply. Call it strategic vulnerability—or call it planned foolishness.
While the U.S. enjoys self-sufficiency through fracking, and Europe diversifies with Norwegian gas, nuclear energy, and eco-friendly promises, China still bets on oil drifting in from an unstable inferno ruled by Israeli jets and U.S. warships with a license to ignite.
Since April, Israeli airstrikes on Iran—with surgical impunity—have confirmed that air supremacy is no longer up for debate: it is a fact. And selective U.S. bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities are multiplying as if the Non-Proliferation Treaty were decorative paperwork.
The result? Iran is cornered, humiliated, and closer than ever to doing what it has long threatened: shutting down Hormuz. And if it does, it won’t be out of strategy… it will be an assisted suicide. One that drags down its main client: China.
Beijing: The Great Power That Depends on Others
China has the muscle but not the fuel. And although it sells the world a narrative of self-reliance and rising power, the truth is it hasn’t solved its addiction to imported oil. The “Power of Siberia II” pipeline, that grand Russian-Chinese energy project, remains on paper. Meanwhile, Beijing depends on ships crossing war zones as if they were cruise liners.
The paradox is that this dependency hasn’t been solved—only disguised. China has signed deals with Iran, Venezuela, Angola, and other “friendly” or Western-sanctioned nations. But those deals are bound by geography… and geography, no matter how socialist you are, is non-negotiable.
When China buys Iranian oil, it leaves from Bandar Abbas, not Vladivostok. It passes through Hormuz, not Shanghai. And if the Strait closes, the alternative is oil that’s more expensive, slower, riskier… or simply inaccessible.
Russia: The “Partner” Cheering from the Sidelines
Many believe China has Russia as an energy partner ready to bail it out. Wrong. Russia is no energy NGO—it’s a pragmatic seller. The higher the oil price due to a potential Hormuz closure, the more Russia profits.
The math is simple: if Tehran explodes, oil prices rise. If oil prices rise, Russia profits. If China panics, it calls Putin. And Putin, master of crisis profiteering, charges dearly. Very dearly. Because he knows Beijing has no other way out—for now.
China vs. the U.S.: Oil as a Geostrategic Hostage
In the midst of a trade, tech, and military dispute between Washington and Beijing, oil becomes a hostage. If the Strait closes, China’s energy costs soar, its industry loses competitiveness, and inflation becomes a boomerang.
And that’s where Washington smiles. Because even if the Marines don’t fire directly at China, every drone that bombs an Iranian facility is an indirect bullet aimed at the world’s factory.
The new Cold War is no longer fought with tanks, but with naval fleets in the Persian Gulf. And the battlefield isn’t Taiwan or the South China Sea—it’s that strait, the size of a mistake… with planetary consequences.
A Dragon That Can’t Roar… Because It Has No Fuel
China, once believing it could arbitrate the conflict, is beginning to realize it’s just another trapped player. It can’t enforce peace. It can’t prevent war. It doesn’t control the maritime routes. It doesn’t dominate Middle Eastern skies. And its plans for “energy resilience” are written in a future that hasn’t arrived.
Iran is cornered. Israel feels invulnerable. The U.S. acts with impunity. And China… simply waits.
Because if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the one who suffocates is not the Ayatollah.
It’s the dragon that breathes oil… and depends on others’ permission not to burn.
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