Global energy policy operates like a finely tuned clock: every spring, lever, and gear is tied to a geography that, when disrupted, shakes the entire system. The Strait of Hormuz—a narrow artery barely 39 kilometers wide between Iran and Oman—is one of those critical springs. Between 20% and 30% of the world’s oil supply flows through it.
If Tehran were to close the strait tomorrow in retaliation for Israeli and U.S. airstrikes, the first wave of chaos would not hit Washington or Brussels. The primary shock—economic, industrial, and geopolitical—would strike Beijing.
Paradoxically, the war being waged by Israel and the United States against Iran is not just a Middle Eastern conflict with Western implications. It drags China into a strategic battlefield it never intended to enter—one where oil mixes with blood and where the energy future of the world’s second-largest economy depends on decisions made by others.
Hunters and Hunted on the Persian Gulf Chessboard
Since April 2024, U.S. surgical strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have escalated beyond the point of return. Framed as “preemptive action” against an alleged imminent threat, the U.S. campaign has been paired with Israeli air operations reaching as far as Isfahan. These strikes reveal a blunt truth: Iran no longer controls its own airspace.
This message is not only military—it is psychological. Iran is under siege.
Yet China, though far from the battlefield, is trapped in the same trench. Not by ideology, but by geoeconomic necessity. Unlike the West, China cannot afford wars abroad. Its vulnerability is energy: it imports 70% of the oil it consumes, and half of that supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
One analyst at Peking University described it bluntly:
“The closure of Hormuz would be Asia’s equivalent of the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse.”
The remark received far less attention than it deserved.
Europe has diversified its energy through LNG terminals, renewables, and non-Russian partners. The United States enjoys relative self-sufficiency thanks to fracking. China, however, remains dependent on a geographic red line controlled by a sanctioned state under siege.
The Geopolitics of Oil: Who Actually Fears a Hormuz Blockade?
Iran has often threatened to close the strait—once in 2012, again in 2019, and now more aggressively in 2025. But today’s situation is different: Tehran is more cornered, more isolated, and facing external aggression with unprecedented impunity.
Unlike 2015, there is no Barack Obama signing nuclear agreements. There is Joe Biden, pressured by the Israeli lobby and Republicans, who has eliminated all diplomatic pathways. There is also Russia—verbally supportive of Iran, yet quietly incentivized to keep Tehran under pressure. A weakened Iran means higher oil prices and a China that remains tightly dependent on Russia.
China and Russia are not “friends.” They are partners of convenience.
The Siberia-to-China megaproject—Power of Siberia II—is still incomplete. The existing pipeline covers only a fraction of China’s needs. The rest still arrives on tankers navigating the Persian Gulf.
China’s Economy on Edge: A Nation Running on Imported Fuel
China’s vulnerability is not limited to energy. Its entire industrial model—ports, factories, supply chains—runs on petroleum derivatives. If Hormuz is closed:
- shipping costs will surge,
- maritime insurance rates will explode,
- delivery times to Shanghai and Shenzhen will extend by weeks,
- and some shipments may not arrive at all.
This plays directly into the broader U.S.-China rivalry. While Washington has restructured to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing, Beijing still depends on Western markets to absorb its exports.
If energy prices skyrocket, Chinese goods become uncompetitive. The closure of Hormuz would be nothing short of a silent catastrophe for Xi Jinping’s industrial machine.
Furthermore, a prolonged closure could trigger U.S. military intervention under the pretext of “restoring navigation.” Saudi Arabia could raise oil prices. Regional instability could halt tanker traffic entirely.
Every move in this geopolitical chessboard threatens global energy stability—and the king most likely to fall is China.
A Dragon Chained to a Maritime Chokepoint
As missiles streak over Iranian skies and drones hum above the Gulf, Beijing’s only policy is: wait. Unlike the United States, which acts as an empire, or Iran, which reacts out of desperation, China is trapped in a paradox.
Its rise depends on global stability. But the world is being reshaped by decisions over which Beijing has no control.
The irony is devastating: the nation investing the most in renewables, electric trains, and green technologies remains dependent on oil traveling through the most vulnerable chokepoint on Earth.
And if that chokepoint bleeds, China will be the first to lose blood.
Hormuz: The Narrowest Strait, the Largest Threat to China
In today’s world, no battlefield is more consequential than a maritime chokepoint. The Strait of Hormuz—just 39 kilometers of geopolitical dynamite—carries far more than oil. It carries:
- inflation,
- proxy conflicts,
- strategic leverage,
- global supply chains,
- and political futures.
What appears to be a confrontation between Iran and the U.S., or Israel and the Muslim world, masks the true hostage: China.
If Iran closes the strait, Beijing—not Washington, not Brussels—would face the immediate collapse.
In the global energy war, the dragon is tied by the tail to the tankers crossing Hormuz. Every missile that strikes Natanz or Isfahan brings China closer to economic blackout.
China: A Superpower Without Fuel
China presents itself as self-reliant and ascendant, but it has not solved its dependency on imported oil. The “Power of Siberia II” pipeline exists more on paper than in reality. And China’s diversified oil partnerships—Iran, Venezuela, Angola—are constrained by geography.
Oil bought from Iran still leaves from Bandar Abbas. It still crosses Hormuz. The map doesn’t care about ideology.
If the strait closes, China’s alternatives are:
- oil that is more expensive,
- oil that takes longer to transport,
- oil that is riskier to ship,
- or no oil at all.
Russia: The Partner Who Wins When China Loses
Those who think Russia will rescue China misunderstand the partnership. Russia is no charity—it is a seller. A closure of Hormuz makes oil prices soar. High oil prices are Moscow’s lifeline.
If Iran explodes, Russia profits. If oil surges, Russia profits. If China panics, Russia gains leverage.
Putin knows Beijing has no escape route. And he will charge accordingly.
China, the U.S., and the New Energy Cold War
In the midst of a technological, economic, and military rivalry with the United States, Beijing’s greatest weakness is energy.
If Hormuz is closed:
- China’s energy costs skyrocket,
- its industrial competitiveness collapses,
- and inflation becomes its domestic enemy.
Washington wouldn’t need to fire a single shot at China. The indirect pressure generated by every U.S. airstrike on Iran already functions as strategic coercion.
The new Cold War is not fought in Taiwan. It is fought through naval power in the Persian Gulf.
A Dragon That Cannot Roar
China believed it could mediate the conflict. Now it realizes it is just another player trapped on the board. It cannot enforce peace. It cannot prevent war. It does not control maritime routes. It does not dominate Middle Eastern skies. And its long-term energy plans belong to a future that has not arrived.
Iran is cornered. Israel feels untouchable. The United States acts with impunity. And China waits.
Because if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the one who suffocates is not the Ayatollah.
It is the dragon that breathes oil—and depends on others to keep breathing.
English 
Spanish 